DWC On The GO

Al Maktoum International Airport at Dubai World Center (DWC) is set for major expansion to eventually accommodate up to 240 million passengers. DWC currently handles a few low cost airlines but is the home of Emirates SkyCargo in addition to a few more cargo airlines, creating one of the largest cargo hubs in the region.

An investment of 32 Billion USDs has been set for this task, almost double the projected 18 Billion USDs projected earlier at the start of the decade.. The investment is to support the building of another 4 runways and 2 satellite buildings that will accommodate 120 million passengers annually and 100 A380s parked at any one time (click here for a look at the Master Plan). This phase will be completed in 6 to 8 years in time for Emirates to move out from Dubai International in the mid 2020s leaving Dubai International for the use of Flydubai and other operators. The airport design will allow Dubai Airports to add capacity in 20 million passengers increments to support the expansion plans of Emirates.

Dubai International is expected to handle 120 million passengers by 2020 in time for the 2020 Expo Trade Exhibition. The smooth expansion of Emirates depends on capacity at Dubai International. It is projected that Emirates will carry 93 million passengers by 2020.

Dubai sees the aviation sector as a major contributor to its economy and it is expected to generate 323,000 jobs and contribute 28% of GDP in 2020 compared to 250,000 jobs and 22% of GDP in 2011.

Beyond Emirates' A350 Order Cancellation

This blog first appeared in Bangalore Aviation under the title of Analysis: Emirates Banks on 777X with A350 XWB Order Cancellation jointly authored by Devesh Agarwal and Oussama Salah

On June 11, 2014 Emirates and Airbus announced the cancellation of the A350 order 50 A350-900 and 20 A350-1000 as a result of a fleet requirements review. The order cancellation was downplayed by Airbus as "not good news commercially" but not "bad news financially". It must have been a disappointment to lose 9% of the A350XWB order book by one of the most prominent Airbus customers. Emirates deliveries would have started in 2019 giving Airbus ample time to recover. However, it sends the message that B777X can easily perform the missions of the A350XWB.

I am certain the fleet requirements review went beyond the A350 cancellation, Emirates has emphasized that the passenger growth forecast has not been changed which makes one wonder what the fleet composition will eventually be?

The cancellation has many advantages for Emirates:

• Rationalizing the fleet back to two (2) types; A380s and B777s currently the fleet consists of  (A380/A340/A330 and B777);
• Removing the financial and human resources burden of entry into service of a new fleet (maintenance facilities, simulators, parts, training and hiring etc..);
• An improved cash flow due to reduced pre delivery payments; and
• Less financing requirements in the tune of Sixteen (16) Billion USD.

The only disadvantage at this time, there is no aircraft to cover the 230 to 300 passengers requirement which is now covered by the A330/A340 and some of the B777-200, in other words their thinner routes. One can argue that with the newer standards of first and business seats, cubicles and apartments the passenger loads of the aircraft will automatically be reduced. 

Emirates wants an A380neo which Airbus is starting to look at, however the A330neo is still their priority. Emirates is an influential customer and very persistent, remember the B777X so eventually Airbus will develop the A380neo. In the meantime Emirates and Boeing are discussing the B747-8i which has slightly lower passenger load than the current A380 configuration but the same range capability and as the latest reports intimate a slightly better fuel consumption on a seat/mile basis. Whether Emirates will accept the B747-8i fuel efficiency argument and actually buy the B747-8i or it is only meant to pressure Airbus towards the A380neo, remains to be seen.

In any case, the Farnborough Air Show is just round the corner.

Dubai World Central Taking Off

Dubai World Central (DWC), Dubai's mega airport designed to accommodate 160 million passengers has suffered delays in opening. Airlines have been reluctant to move out of Dubai International and relocate to DWC. The aprons are becoming more and more congested as Emirates and Flydubai increase their fleet size and frequencies and international carriers operations increase. 

Currently, DWC is used by a handful of Cargo Carriers. Dubai International has been trying for years to move Business Aviation to DWC without much success until recently when Execujet and Jet Aviation joined DC Aviation at DWC. Currently DWC has one runway and a low cost terminal and no further development will happen before 2018, when the last development in Dubai International is completed. Only then will the other 4 runways and passenger terminals be built to accommodate an Emirates Airline move in 2025 (Dubai World Central, A Vision Delayed).

Last week it was announced that nasair a low cost carrier from KSA and Wizz Air another low cost carrier from Hungary will commence operation on 27 October 2013 to DWC. Wizz Air is a new entrant to the Dubai market, however nasair, already operating from Dubai International will be adding up to another 10 weekly additional frequencies to DWC. Dubai Airports estimates DWC will have around 30 carriers operating into it by 2015, a very ambitious plan.

The final qualification of the terminal will commence now to support the October opening. The terminal was the venue of MEBA 2012 last December 2012. DWC has an access problem at the moment because of its remote location. The RTA will as usual will come up with solutions that will  alleviate the problem.

Finally, DWC will be the new home for the Dubai Air Show starting this year and MEBAA.

Aviation Safety Culture

Dubai Civil Aviation Authority (DCAA) organized the Aviation Safety Culture 2013 (29-30 January 2013), an event that is designed to create a safety culture amongst the users of Dubai's Airports and to strength its position as a leading airport in terms of application of aviation safety standards.

The seminar, for want of a better word, discussed the Safety Management System (SMS) design and implementation which has been mandated by ICAO and picked up by national aviation authorities. It is not about the Policy Statement or the actual writing of the manual to satisfy regulatory requirements. It is about instilling a common safety culture. especially in multicultural work places with expatriates coming from more than 160 nations, with differing national cultures and levels of education.

An SMS manual looks at the practical side of things however, during implementation it fails to reach the grass roots, the people at the workplace. For SMS to be effective, its safety message has to be communicated to the employees that carry the organization. They are the people that need to be mentored, coached and motivated, who need to understand the safety message and how it affects them, their colleagues, the organization and their customers. They need to learn how to deal with pressures before they deal with processes and technology, it is about behavioural safety and consistent implementation. It is about an Organizational Culture that is able to override a National Culture when it comes to safety.
A good SMS  relies on people's competence and supports them in order to be able to recover from serious failures, especially those unusual and unpredictable.

A safety culture has several elements; Informed, Reporting, Just, Flexible and Learning. The toughest one is Just, the ability to balance between accountability and learning. It is the balance between the organization's need to learn from errors and the accountability of people committing them.
It is a fine line that is hard to draw, but in all cases it has to be transparent and consistent.

Of course, more aspects of Safety Management Systems were discussed. Clearly SMS is not only about a policy or a manual or processes, procedures and technology, it is about communicating the safety message to all the right people.

Airports, The New Differentiator

As competition rages between the three GCC carriers Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways the need for airport capacity becomes more evident. The primary requirement is not only to handle the increasing number of passengers but to provide a satisfying travel experience. As the level of on board services becomes ever so close, the differentiation shifts to the airport experience.

On January 13, The Director General of Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announced that the new Doha airport will be renamed Hamad International Airport and will start full operation in the second half of 2013. However, flights not requiring lounge access will start operating from April 1, 2013.
Qatar Airways will move in as soon as Lounges are completed.

Dubai Airports having  just started soft operation of the new Concourse A, a part of Terminal 3 complex  designed solely to handle A380 aircraft, announced yesterday, 14 January a major project to revamp Terminal 1. The project starts in Q1 2013 and is scheduled for completion at the end of 2014. The upgrade includes streamlined baggage screening, new departure check in desks, all the airport retail and food areas and the arrival halls; basically a full radical facelift. The idea is to enhance the travelling experience. The revamped terminal will be linked to Concourse D, currently under construction by an elevated train system.

Abu Dhabi Airport Company awarded the contract for the Midfield Terminal Complex in Abu Dhabi International Airport on June 2012. The complex located between the two runways will be completed by 2017. The Terminal Complex will have a passenger terminal, cargo and duty free facilities capable to handle up to forty  million passengers annually.

The importance of the airport experience is not lost in the region with airports like Dubai and Abu Dhabi already offering free wi-fi providing connectivity to passengers in addition to restaurants, food courts, lounges, a hotel and shopping experiences in their duty free areas.

Emirates and Qantas .... The World Has Changed

The suspense and speculation are over, Emirates and Qantas announced their anticipated code share agreement. An agreement that made Dubai the European hub for Qantas as of April 2013, replacing Singapore and Hong 

As a result Qantas terminated a seventeen years agreement with Oneworld partner BA on the London route and code share agreement with Air France and Cathay

So what does Qantas get in return, a Dubai hub that connects to thirty three (33) European and eighteen (18) African cities in addition to the Levant and GCC. Emirates gets access to the Australian market, providing passenger feed to its expanding network and a daily A380 flight to Christchurch from Sydney. It also offsets the advantage that Etihad has with its Virgin Australia tie up.

However, the real winner in this deal is Dubai. A Qantas hub reinforces Dubai's position as a global aviation hub and destination.

Emirates and Qantas

Speculations are over, the Chairman of Emirates Airlines HH Sheikh Ahmad Bin Saeed Al-Maktoom announced today that Emirates is in talks with Qantas for a code share agreement within six (6) months. There will be no revenue sharing and the aim is to get Qantas to fly through Dubai. (read full story here)

Qantas has been one of the more outspoken critics of Emirates and the way Emirates expand. Qantas had several problems starting with A380 problems and a two (2) days shutdown due to labour problems with its maintenance staff in addition to soaring fuel prices.

Etihad acquiring a stake (up to 10%) in Virgin Australia was not good news for either carrier. It provided Etihad with access to the Australian market. It was logical for Emirates and Qantas to code share; Emirates gets access as comparable to Etihad's and Qantas gets a boost to its international operations by tapping traffic feed from Dubai

Dubai World Central, A Vision Delayed

In my previous Blog "Dubai The Brand" I wrote " As for DWC it will slowly be buried until they figure out what to do with it." I was wrong, the waiting is over, Dubai World Central's (DWC) fate is sealed.
EMIRATES AIRLINES will not move to DWC until 2025, seven years after the last upgrade, Concourse 4 of Dubai International. Currently DWC has one runway and a low cost terminal. Several cargo forwarders and an FBO are based there. The airport is connected to Jebel Ali Free Zone with an overpass that allows cargo to move between both areas without having to go through customs.

This shifts any sizable investment until about 2018. DWC Phase 2 (2018-2023) will cover the construction of another four (4) runways and a terminal capable of 160 million passengers annually and a cargo facility capable of 12 million tons annually.

The question now is what happens at DWC between now and 2018. Dubai Airports has to come up with some plans to keep the facility operational and grow the business. My guess would be to attract MROs and Aviation related OEMs to set up facilities there.

To read about Dubai Airport expansion click here

Dubai The Brand

Dubai has been in the news again. A couple days back Dudai Airports announced a massive investment in Dubai International Airport (around 7.8 billion USD) to build Concourse 4 (Concourse 3 is currently under construction), upgrade Terminal 2 and increase cargo capacity by almost 30%. This will bring the airport capacity to 90 million passengers by 2018 from the current 60 million passengers.

Great news! well yes but what about Dubai World Central Airport at Jebel Ali. This was supposed to be a six runways (now 5 runways planned) airport able to handle 180 million passengers annually. The airport has one runway operational and a low cost terminal built. Cargo operation has started but operators prefer the International Airport. Passenger operation has been delayed  till 2012. No airline wants to use the airport it is very far from Dubai or Abu Dhabi.

The other Bad news is the cancellation of Dubai Aerospace Enterprises of all its Airbus orders (45 aircraft. 11 A350-900 and 34 A320, worth 5.8 billion USD) and is in discussion with Boeing about the possibility of canceling their orders 56 aircraft. DAE has never risen to become a strategic business for Dubai. DAE owns Standard Aero.

How do these events affect the Dubai brand?   Positively.

Financially it looks great Dubai just reduced 5.8 Billion USD of liability and is looking to reduce it further when they cancel the Boeing orders.

The expansion of Dubai Airport was associated with increased jobs in the aviation sector and a greater contribution to the GDP.  As for DWC it will slowly be buried until they figure out what to do with it.

Emirates Airlines Brighter Prospects

Emirates Airlines must be very happy with the news of the last couple of weeks. Having posted its best ever profit results of USD 1.5 Billions (click here for details) in 2010, the airline had more good news;


1. Emirates closed a USD 1 Billion Bond Issue which was indicative of the investor community confidence in
    the airline financial health and strength.


2. The Oxford Economics Report concluded that the success of Emirates is not the result of unfair
    competition or government support but because of effective aviation policy. The report concluded that
    the aviation  sector in Dubai  generates 125000 jobs  and their spending supports an additional 134000
    jobs which contribute an additional USD 7.9 Billions in Dubai's GDP. In total  the aviation sector's 
    contribution to Dubai's economy is 250000 jobs and USD 22 billion representing around 19% of total 
    employment and 22% of GDP.

3. MasterCard Index of Global Destination Cities ranked Dubai as the #9 most popular destination City 

    in the world in 2011 with 7.9 million visitors and a USD 7.8 Billion spend.


All the above and the rebound of passengers growth in April compared to March is validating Emirates policies and plans 

This That and The Other

The last 10 days or so have been very bizarre. A long holiday the start of which coincided with Thanksgiving. Two holidays, Eid al Adha and Thanksgiving, two occasions for men and women to give thanks for the bounties God has given us.

It all started the evening before the holidays when Dubai World announced it wants to defer 60 Billion USD in debt for six months, the greatest faux pas in PR history. WOW, what were you thinking Dubai, by the time the holidays are over, all will be forgotten and life resumes normally. Well, the world freaked, a story like that and no one available for comment, not even the janitor, for 10 days. It did not help that Dubai disowned its off spring. As expected Dubai bashing restarted in the western press in earnest, stories like the city built on the sand, which assets Dubai will lose to Abu Dhabi but the best one was this crisis would derail the world economic recovery. Huh, 60 Billion USD in deferment will derail the world, what about the trillions lost and others spent for the bail out all over the world, get real people. Eventually cooler heads prevailed and the world settled down in anticipation.

All that while, the UAE celebrated the 38th anniversary of the union. A celebration which was nothing like the previous 13 I witnessed here. Emaraties expressed so much pride in their country, union and culture, a real coming of age.

Of course I did not get 10 days of holidays, private sector you know, The three days between Eid and National days were so full and hectic having to cope with the introduction of 2 new aircraft types in 6 months.

Of course it was not all work work, on National Day we had a Tweetup at Wild Peeta, great company, great fun and so diverse.

All in all a fun week or so, but really weird, freaky weird.

National Day

Tomorrow December 2, 2009 marks the 38th National Day of The United Arab Emirates (UAE). The only true and successful union in the Arab World. The result of the Vision of Sheikh Zayed of Abu Dhabi and Sheikh Rashed of Dubai (may they rest in peace) that forged a federal union of seven emirates known at the time as the trucial states. A vision that transformed a desert into one of the most dynamic and visionary countries in the world.

I arrived to the UAE in 1996 at the time of the 25th anniversary and was fortunate enough to witness and experience and may be contribute in a small way to its development. The change in the last 13 years was staggering and amazing. A vision so powerful, it galvanised Emaratis and Expatriates alike.

The UAE is a country that is tolerant towards religion, life styles and most expatriates' idiosyncrasies. This tolerance provides an environment that promotes a very comfortable life style, which is rarely found in any other country, just ask any expatriate that has returned home.

It is a tribute to the Rulers and Emaraties who along with millions of expatriates, have sustained, nurtured and developed the original vision that created this great nation.

Finally, thank you to all Emaraties for making us feel welcome and at home, in spite of our diverse life styles.

Wishing you all a Happy National Day

Dubai Air Show #dxb09

First of all I am writing this blog from my Blackberry, a first for me, so if it looks awful blame it on technology.

It is the last day of the Dubai Air Show #dxb09. It has been a hectic week for all of us. It has been a show that had been different than previous ones, it still had aviation professionals hurriedly going from one stand or chalet to another, looking for, following up or concluding business.

The first noticeable thing is the lack of mega commercial aircraft orders, so what, it is a recession and I see no reason why the region should bail out the industry again. A refreshing thing actually happened, we got to hear about all the equipment and services contracts that used to be drowned by mega aircraft orders, a reminder that the industry is more than a few aircraft manufacturers.


The other thing is the use of social media to cover the event, a thrilling experience which I am priviliged to have taken a tiny tiny minute part in along with giants like Flightglobal and @flightblogger, @runwaygirl, @mtargettuk and many others. We had probably the first Tweetup in an International Air Show.

For me, other than business meetings, it was an opportunity to meet friends and coleagues that I have not seen in many years. The real highlight and thrill was the making of new friends, ones that I followed and networked with on Twitter, LinkedIn and other social media. They became real live and fun people to be around.

It reminded me that an Air Show is not all business. It is about fun and enjoying one's friends company around something we all feel passionately about, aircraft and aviation.

#dxb09 has been a fun experience enriched with friends old and new, so, keep well guys and be good.

Dubai Air Show 2009 Tweetup

True to Tweeples or Twitteratis (take your pick) while tweeting on #dxb09 it was spontaneously agreed to have a Tweetup on Monday at 2:30 pm under the Qatar Airways B777. All sponsored by Flightglobal.

Well, we had a Tweetup, well maybe a mini or some would say micro. At the time under the shadow of the QR B777 and during the Flying Displays, we all connected the Flightglobal Team , those who were not tied up blogging.

The roll call included @stefanthepilot @inflightcuisine @sumudu @tangosix @obsalah @runwaygirl @mtargettuk @spetrovic and a few more. It was great to meet the team behind Flightglobal easily the most extensively visited aviation news website.

The highlight was the introduction of @stefanthepilot to all of us, quite a character. Well @stephanthepilot is a pilot action figure (. Honestly, I was surprised, never thought of an action figure, chalk one for the Flightglobal team.

We had a few pics and red T shirts (click here), we chatted, of course over the roar of fighters using their after burners (something only persons in aviation will do, normal people will go indoors).

It was great fun and I enjoyed it, the highlight of the day

Dubai Air Show, the Twitter Experience

This is the first day of the Dubai Air Show and guess what, I was not there. However, I had a different Air Show experience, a social media coverage of the Air Show #dxb09. Sure, it is not the same as being there experiencing the buzz and excitement, but nevertheless this is my first experience of whether social media works in a venue that I am familiar with (my 7th air show).

Keeping an open mind, I followed the events as they unfolded and yes it was still exciting. Best thing is Breaking News, I actually got to hear about events, equipment orders and aircraft developments as they were actually being announced. Even the flying displays were reported by @flightglobal.

Credit has to go to @flightblogger and @RunwayGirl among many others for bringing about this experience.

It certainly was interesting, tomorrow will get to meet all those tweeples responsible for keeping us in the know

Dubai Air Show

Sunday the 15th of November the Dubai Air Show 2009 will officially start. It promises to be the highlight of an otherwise very grim year for aviation for many reasons;

1. The number of exhibitors have increased over those of 2007.

2. It is held in an area that has bucked the trend and is actually shows growth.

3. As always people are intrigued to hear what Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways have to

order.

4. The first show held when Social Media is so popular and the ability to catch up through

Twitter and Facebook, great fun.

For first timers Dubai Air Show is an awesome event, with all these aircraft on static display or the 2 hours of flying displays. It fills me with awe every time I watch, even though some o them are the same routines from previous shows. The exhibition halls that house all these big, famous and not so big and famous that make up aviation, all under one roof, so accessible and so friendly and easy to talk to is an inspiration.

For me personally, it is a time of catching up with friends, yes old friends. The ones I thought I lost track of, somehow we all surface again at air shows. Time to check on families and careers; where they were and where are they heading.

It is a time of feeling proud of being part of an industry that refuses to be beaten or put down by recession, terror or politics. An industry that innovates its way out of trouble and never gives up.

In a region where aviation is at the leading edge of technology and all its innovation and creativity.

In a region that showed the world that "yes we can" through 9/11 and all its persisting conflicts, SARS, Avian Flu, H1N1 and recession.

In the course of the coming week I will blog and share events and feelings, I am so looking forward to it.

The Replacement of Dubai

On a radio business talk show, a question was asked on which city will replace Dubai. Would it be Doha or Abu Dhabi? The answer was very diplomatic, but then I don't have to be diplomatic.

The short answer is not in a million years.

What about all that oil money? Precisely because of the oil wealth Dubai will not be replaced. What every one forgets, Dubai is not towers and malls or amusement parks. Dubai is an idea, a vision and a life style that became a reality not only with money but with the hard work and innovation of Emaraties and expatriates alike, who bought in the vision and dream.

Other cities will copy the parts of Dubai which are money related. They may have higher towers or bigger malls. What they will not have is the dream and the vision that produced the life style and quality of life that is cherished and makes Dubai what it is now, irreplaceable.

The Place That Does

I was never a great fan of Dubai. Having lived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for almost 14 years, I always thought Dubai was artificial and ostentatious, not the best place to raise kids.

For the last year or so I have to drive across Dubai almost on daily basis. There is nothing like driving across Dubai in the early morning, very light traffic and easy driving, it gives one the opportunity to look at all these towers and reflect on how things were several years back.

Dubai, or to be more exact the Rulers of Dubai, had a vision and that vision evolves and changes year on year. That vision puts Dubai in a league of its own, not only within the UAE but globally. What differentiates Dubai is the will to implement that vision and realise it, at a time far richer and larger countries did not have the will. When Dubai started building the Metro a few years back, I could never figure why the rail went up and down instead of a simpler straight line, last year I saw overpasses being built over where the metro line dips. A vision so detailed that was designed a few years back and only being finalised now with such precision.

The recession has not been very kind to Dubai, but in a way it was needed to provide a reality check of what has become a totally changed Dubai which has lost its sense of balance. What is painful is the negative press that attacked Dubai and the UAE. Some of it is justified and is being addressed by amending existing laws or passing new ones. It is the hypocrisy of a lot of the authors of these articles that really angers me, why was it OK when Dubai was boom city and now it is all wrong.

Dubai is The Place That Does. Dubai is a place with a VISION, but more importantly a place that goes forth and delivers on that vision as planned and on time (well a few months late sometimes but better late than never).

Am I a greater fan of Dubai, well I am less critical of the place and sometimes I think it is actually cool. It is a privilege to be in The Place That Does.