Sunday, July 25, 2010

Aviation's Green Shoots

Other than what seemed like a global heat wave in the northern hemisphere, July has been good to the airline industry.

The mood is upbeat, the airlines of the MENA region experiencing the usual 10% to 15% increase in traffic uplift coupled with the expanding networks of Emirates, Etihad, Gulf Air, Air Arabia, Flydubai and Royal Jordanian to name a few. The announcement of a 10 years contract for component support between Flydubai and ADAT signals what maybe a new trend of regional work staying in the region instead of going to European MROs and consolidating ADAT's ambitions of becoming the HUB MRO for the region.

As usual, Emirates set the trend at Farnborough with their B777 order. What was refreshing was the resurgence of leasing company orders, a signal that credit and financing may be available.

But the most interesting and exciting news came from the USA. Most carriers there announced Q1/Q2 profits and traffic increases, something we have not seen much of in the last few years.

The outlook for the remainder of 2010 looks good. Most of the Summer and holiday season still ahead of us promising an increase in traffic and hopefully profits. Barring any major political upheaval, unpronounceable volcanoes or pandemics, 2010 may be the year the airline industry starts its recovery with an IATA profit forecast of two and a half billion dollars for 2010.

Green shoots, hopefully a little bit more, and about time too, it really has been overdue

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