Royal Jordanian at Fifty Eight

 If there is one word to describe Royal Jordanian, it would be "resilient". Since its inception in 1963, the airline has weathered multiple conflicts, geopolitical upheavals and still managed to survive and thrive. 

An air of optimism was displayed by the CEO Mr. Samer Majali on the occasion of the 58th anniversary of Royal Jordanian as he announced a new slogan for 2022 "Ahead Together", the expansion of the network from 35 to 60 destinations and the fleet from 24 to 41 aircraft over the coming 5 years. 

This has brought fond memories. The airline was, for me and I am sure for so many others, the place where we learnt many lessons. Where we experienced successes and failures and where we were allowed to grow and innovate. I remember the introduction of the A310 fleet in less than a year from contract signature to first delivery in March 1987. Or going from a single narrow body hangar in Amman International Airport (Marka) to a three (3) widebody bays hangar in Queen Alia International Airport (QAIA) which allowed for the expansion of maintenance capability from narrow body C Checks to Heavy Maintenance (D Checks) of the B707, B727, L1011 and later fleets.

The airline has suffered during the pandemic due to lockdowns and airport closures with minimal operations. But more importantly the lack of government support to the local airlines in Jordan. Incentive packages were provided to foreign LCCs (Ryan Air, Easy Jet and Wizz Air) to operate flights to Jordan but denied to local carriers. 

Royal Jordanian as always will bounce back and thrive and will continue to be a Jordanian success story.

This Blog can be found on my new site: https://www.oussamastake.com/post/royal-jordanian-at-fifty-eight

To Ban Or Not To Ban, That Is The Question

As the new Corona Virus Variant "OMICRON" (O) starts spreading, countries have already started banning flights and entry from countries where the variant has been detected. Eventually, lockdowns and multi colored lists will be imposed; just as it was with the Delta Variant. 

This brings to mind some memorable quotes:

1. "Those wo do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it; and

2. "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different  results"

I am all for public health and I am not being callous. Technically the only things we have to fight and mitigate the effects of any Corona Variant are (and not in any special order of importance);

1. Common Sense

2.Masking;

3. Physical Distancing;

4. Vaccination; 

5. Testing;  

6. Quarantines and the ultimate;

7. Lockdowns.

I understand there are people in this world that think that the above measures infringe on their personal rights. I am not here to argue the moral position or how this affects society overall. I think, with almost 2 years down the path of this pandemic, it is moot.

Governments have mandated most of these measures for international air travel to mitigate the Delta variant and they appear to work, so why impose country bans and eventual lockdowns. We have all seen and experienced the effects of lockdowns on people and economies; utter devastation. The global effect is great; just look at what happened to the markets on Friday 26 November 2021 when OMICRON hit the news. The markets indices went down almost 2.5% in one day and no one knows what this coming week will bring.

The effects on mental health and the global economy are incalculable. There is a need to think smart and build on what works and what is best for everyone. Travel restrictions are not helpful and to a certain extent did not prevent the spread of the Delta variant. It just devastated local economies,  the travel and tourism industries and sectors associated with them.

At the end, this is a risk assessment and the tendency is for governments to err on the side of caution; especially when it comes to lives and livelihoods. There should be a balance between lives (every life is precious) and livelihoods. 

Governments should enforce that airports and airlines tighten measures regarding PCR testing and masking on the ground and in the air to ensure that the least number of COVID-19 positive passengers travel internationally.

Eventually, Omicron will pass and hopefully with the least amount of global disruption.

Dubai Airshow, My Take.

Unfortunately, I was not able to attend this year's Dubai Airshow. Instead, I followed it on social media. 

Mega deals were signed and several aircraft types were launched during the successive Dubai Airshows over time since its inception as Arab Air in 1986. For me it is not these deals or types that make DAS iconic. After all, these could have been announced and launched any time. What makes it iconic is that it came at the cross roads of the international air transport industry when it was at its lowest. 

We all remember the 2001 airshow that came just 6 weeks after 9/11. The industry was at its lowest point ever, utter devastation. Airlines were grounded, aircraft orders were being cancelled and aircraft deliveries were being deferred, with no end in sight. During that airshow, a record order of USD 15 billions was made by Emirates (22 A380s, 3 A330-200s, 8 A340-600s and 25 B777-200/300s) and signed a partnership with CAE for the training center which is now known as Emirates CAE Flight Training (ECFT) that buoyed the industry and signaled that we will prevail and come back. Eventually, the international air transport came back to profitability; it was a long and arduous path. 

Fast forward two decades almost to the day to 2021, Dubai Airshow is the first airshow open to the industry and public post the COVID-19 pandemic. The international air transport industry literally came to a standstill, with global lockdowns and confusing multi color lists of country restrictions. The Dubai airshow provided the venue for the industry to come back together, face to face. I am not belittling the importance of the commercial deals, but it was not about the orders and the agreements. It was about the social and physical interaction of friends, colleagues and professionals doing business; the old fashioned way. 

So, thank you Dubai for providing these venues that showcase the best of us and the resilience of  aviation.

Airlines Manpower Shortages Revisited

Ever since the airline industry started the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the news were full of flight cancellations, primarily due to the shortage of crew especially in the USA. The crew manpower shortage is an old issue. It started around 2011. This issue was discussed on this blog in June 2011 The New Challenges ... Manpower and Training and in September 2014 The Pilot Shortage Myth, Maybe Not. 

In 2014 the pilot shortage was viewed by ALPA at the time as a "Pay Shortage" and not an actual manpower shortage. The thinking, at the time, was that the industry will suffer in 10 to 15 years of a flight crew and technician shortage in the hundred thousands based on airline expansion plans. 

Fast forward to 2020 and the COVID-19 Pandemic with strict global lockdowns and massive disruptions to life as we knew it. Airlines furloughed, laid off staff and parked or returned aircraft to reduce losses.  As the world learned to cope with the pandemic and airline operations started again airlines faced two issues:   

1. Get aircraft operational (out of parking or storage); and
2. Get staff (crews, technicians and ground) back to man the operation. 

During the Dubai Air Show we all felt the energy of the industry coming back together and looking optimistically to the future; to the much coveted expansion and well being. To achieve this, airlines 

will need to expand and will probably start feeling the pain of flight crew and technician shortages across the globe around 2025 onwards. Training initiatives and programs need to be launched to encourage younger generations to engage with aviation.

Basically, we are back to where we were in 2014. 

It is a reset, hopefully we all have learned the lesson and will work diligently to avert it.

Emergency Response Program Activation Evolution

 This first appeared on GoCrisis (https://www.gocrisis.com) Insights page (https://www.gocrisis.com/erp-program-activation-evolution/) 

For a long time, an Emergency Response Program (ERP) was prepared to handle an aircraft accident and/or incident. If you were a progressive operator, you would have included major flight disruptions at your main base(s) due to airport closures mainly for weather conditions or runway closures. 

ERP activation has evolved as threats to aviation have evolved with pandemics, terrorism, security, and health threats becoming prominent events. The mandating of Safety Management System (SMS) has introduced systematic Risk Management processes and placed emphasis on Emergency Response. 

Smaller general aviation operators, operating internationally, carrying high net worth clients to smaller airports with little support on an unscheduled basis face a myriad of challenges. Their Emergency Response Program activation must consider all the evolving threats. Family Assistance had to be developed to go beyond passengers and their families to include incidents and threats to personnel and property such as sabotage, bomb, and biological threats, communicable diseases along with pandemics.

This is further complicated if you happen to operate in conflict zones. 

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the world had to deal with Ebola, SARS, Avian (bird) Flu (H1N5), MERS, and Swine Flu (H1N1). In addition, operating to certain regions of the world where communicable diseases such as Malaria, Dengue Fever, Chikungunya, Yellow Fever and Zika fever among a longer list of diseases. This has added a new category of inflight incidents dealing with the outbreak of communicable diseases.

 The Emergency Response plan needs to have an emphasis on Media Response and Business Continuity.

A small operator with a limited number of clients cannot afford bad publicity. Consequently, Media Response becomes a very important part of ERP if the company is to survive. It is imperative to convey the right message to the clients, brokers, and service providers. Tell the story of how robust your response was. 

Similarly, Business Continuity is another important aspect of the Emergency Response when your offices are compromised for any reason and must be vacated. The COVID-19 imposed lockdown is a prime example. The ability to operate remotely, whether from home or alternative locations becomes fundamental to the survival of the organization.

Operators need to monitor the evolving threat environment and constantly update their ERP activation issues.

The Second Worst Airline in the World

The second worst airline in the world according to the Daily Mail. This is not in defense of Royal Jordanian (RJ) but more of an attempt to understand; the AirHelp report (click here for the report) covers seventy two (72) airlines and RJ ranked seventy one (71). This is not a very flattering ranking but then the world has more than 72 airlines.

The rankings are based on:
1. On time Performance; RJ's score is 8.3 (83% on time performance);
2. Quality of Service; RJ's score is 6.3;
3. Claim Processing; RJ's score is 0.8.
For a total score of 5.13, the sad thing is that this ranking has deteriorated over the last year or so.

In Summer 2016  RJ ranked 48 out of 78 airlines with a score of 6.73 (7.3, 6.0 and 6.9)
In Autumn 2016 RJ ranked 59 out of 79 with a score of 6.33 (8.1, 6.0 and 4.9)
In Winter 2016/2017 RJ ranked 76 out of 87 with a score of 5.67 (8.0, 6.0 and 3.1)

From Summer 2016 to date RJ worked on improving on time performance and quality. However, Claims Processing went from 6.9 to 0.8 with a steady deterioration with every report. Either
AirHelp got it wrong or Royal Jordanian just became oblivious to passenger claims and complaints and just did not care. Following social media; complaints are on the rise and I am sure so are claims for compensation which appear to follow on deaf ears.

In 2017 the airline went on a social media blitz that earned it top awards and I am sure improved its brand recognition. In 2017 RJ leased an old beat up B737 to help with peak traffic which created a storm of complaints; which I am sure contributed to this (0.8) score. Well, in 2018 RJ did the same again showing complete insensitivity to their passengers views. I am sure whatever savings the airline is hoping to make will be offset by passengers choosing other carriers.


For AIRHELP AIRLINE SCORE METHODOLOGY (click here)

PaxEx on board Royal Jordanian Crown Class

I have flown on board RJ's B787 at least twice annually on the AMM-DTW vv sectors in Crown Class (Business) for the last few years and will probably continue for a few more years. For the sake of transperancy and full disclosure I am an ex RJ employee who happens to fly J class on subload basis.

Crown class on board the B787 compared to the competitors is pretty basic. The seats are comfortable and become fully flat. The stowage area near the seat is hard to get to as it lies behind the shoulder and is very cramped so not much can be stowed.

There is no WiFi so forget about the joys of connectivity for business or social media. IFE is not too bad, but very basic compared to the likes of Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways or THY. None of the latest movie releases are carried, but the selection is adequate for a twelve (12) hours flight.

The on board service was much better at the time the B787 was introduced. As the fortunes of RJ took a downturn so did the on board service. The quality and selection of the food has suffered. The on board service has become indifferent with the occasional flashes of enthusiasm, to put it mildly.

The cabin service lacks the discipline required to be a real competitive business class. The cabin crew are more engaged with their colleagues than with passengers.

As the financial position of the airline improves, hopefully so will the service.

Great to be back

It has been more than one year since I have written last and I miss it. In the meantime a lot of water has flown under many bridges.

The US3 vs the  ME3 dispute has been resolved with both sides claiming victory; but more of a win for the ME3. The Open Sky agreements have been reaffirmed with no changes to their basic elements. The only concession was that the ME3 will not exercise 5th freedom rights from Europe to the USA in the near future; an issue that affects only Emirates at this time. Emirates instead is planning a Barcelona to Mexico City flight which is stirring controversy in Mexico. The Tourism Ministry loves it and Aero Mexico wants to fight it, never a dull moment.

The electronic ban is over; airports are now doing more inspections on electronic equipment before USA and UK flights. However, ICAO and IATA are looking at a ban on having passengers carrying personal electronic devices carried in checked baggage.

Norwegian finally got the authority to operate to the USA and the sky did not fall and jobs were not lost.

Last but not least, BREXIT promises to wreak havoc not only with UK aviation but  the sector on a global level.

These and other regional issues will be touched upon in the near future.

The Electronics Ban

This first appeared on SimpliFlying  as a comment on the article #ELECTRONICSBAN

http://simpliflying.com/2017/electronics-ban-how-can-airlines-minimize-the-damage-to-their-brands/

I traveled from DXB to DTW via AMS with KL and DL. At DXB security was the normal x-ray and walk through metal detectors. However, at the gate in AMS boarding DL all the names of the DXB connecting passengers were on the monitor requesting them to check with the counter. Simply all were required to undergo extra security measures, nothing unusual just a swab of laptops, iPads and tablets for explosive traces and the usual start it for me. This was done in AMM every time I boarded to DTW. So, if it is good enough for DL why is it not good enough for ME carriers. Why go for such an unsafe procedure of putting hundreds of lithium battery powered devices in the aircraft hold? A procedure EASA, the FAA, FSF, IATA and every safety organization has warned against?!!

Just saying

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

A French proverb meaning the more it changes the more it stays the same. It was great to fly on a B787-9 from DXB to SPL. The aircraft was spacious and the cabin was probably as advertised.
The IFE was great; the selection was good and the screens were the latest model.

I guess great thanks to Boeing and Technology in this case.

But then you hit what matters; the airline offering to mere mortals in economy class. The same ultra firm cushions that are not the best for an 8 hours flight, specially the bottom cushion. The same food offering that has not changed for years and mostly the professional and cold service offered sometimes with a smile.

A modern aircraft with a great IFE does not constitute a great passenger experience; it certainly helps. It is this human interaction during flight and on ground that matters, a concept that seems to allude most airlines. The lip service and rhetoric of improved on board services still stops at the curtain seperating first and business from economy.

So I suppose, plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose 

US3 vs ME3

The rhetoric has calmed down since the earlier days, from accusations of complicity in 9/11 to massive subsidies and the inability to compete against rich states to the US3 just requiring the US government to seek consultation with the UAE and Qatar regarding subsidies to the ME3.

The rhetoric included issues ranging from subsidies to labor unions and gay rights.
It appears that subsidies are like beauty, strictly in the eye of the beholder. While the ME3 talk about equity the US3 talk about subsidy and then Chapter 11 is thrown in the mix as an undue advantage accorded to US industry. The US3 counter and rightly so that this is the law of the land but then without it the US3 would not be with us today.

As for labor unions; the ME3 employ expatriates who sign up for a package that  pobably is superior to whatever they can get at there home countries, so why would they care about unionizing.  But then labor unions are governed by each country's law, just like Chapter 11 I guess.

Similarly, the anti gay issue has nothing to do with fair competition. The ME3 have gay people in their staff, and as long as they do not break any pertinent country laws, they remain employed. But then do the US3 want the US government to discuss labor unions and LGBT rights laws in the UAE and Qatar, of course not, then why bring it up other than to muddy the waters. After all the track record in the USA when it comes to these two issues is not the most pogrssive, with laws enacted in individual States that roll back the rights to unionize and gay rights.

The position of the US3 is opposed by almost all segments of the industry from Aircraft manufacturers', OEM's, the travel and tourist industry, airports and cities. Then why all the screaming?
The US3 are making record profits and there is very little overlap in the international routes they operate with those of the ME3. Is it an anticompetitive sentiment and a myopic view of what constitutes competition? Partly yes, look at the postion taken against Norwegian 's application to operate to the USA or the stance of Delta against the EXIM bank as an indication. The ME3 counter with; compete on  service; invest in new modern aircraft, state of the art IFE systems and customer service on board and on the ground and passngers will come back.

The issue that really scares the US3 and their EU Lgacy airlines partners is 5th freedom rights from Europe and the ensuing comptition on the North Atlantic market. FedEx and that segment of the market oppose the US3 position because they do not want any changes to these 5th freedom rigths. Emirates Airline's Milan/New York route was opposed by both the US3 and the EU Legacy airlines because it directly affects North Atlantic traffic. Tim Clark, Emirate's president intimated last week that the airline might exercise its 5th freedom rights under the bilateral if it proves profitable. He basically declared if a European city asks Emirates to operate because they feel there isn't enough capacity to the USA then subject to profitability Emirates will operate. Etihad has that option but then they do not really need the bilateral to operate on the North Atlantic, they have their own EU approved equity partners; Alitalia, airberlin to name a few.

Welcome to the global travel market.

Etihad, Lufthansa and EU Nationals Control

The LBA on 16 October 2014 reversed a decision to cancel 34 code share flights of Etihad and Airberlin that was taken a few days earlier. The reason for the earlier cancellation was that these code share flights violated the traffic rights agreement between Germany and the UAE. A meeting later in the month between both governments to discuss the bilateral will clarify things for the future. Lufthansa blames these code shares for the overcapacity on the Abu Dhabi route and called them unjustified.

Lufthansa has lobbied the EU to reexamine the control issues of foreign equity stakes in EU carriers and has lobbied for the courts to block Emirates Milan/JFK flights earlier in April 2014; those flights are now operated on a temporary authority pending an appeal's court decision.

Lufthansa has been more vociferous than most regarding the 3 Gulf carriers expansion into Europe. The EU now is examining whether Etihad controls Airberlin and Alitalia through its equity stakes and is also looking at the Delta/Virgin Atlantic deal. This has prompted the Swiss authorities to look at Etihad's control of Darwin Airlines now branded Etihad Regional.

The issue of foreign investors having control of EU carriers is  becoming a thorny issue. There is a needed balance required between control and the investment risk of bailing out a European carrier and preserving jobs and airline services to communities. The major EU legacy carriers are coming under pressure from EU LCCs and apparently from the Gulf carriers that they are not willing to invest more but are looking to cut costs and curtail services. Air France/KLM declined to increase its stake in Alitalia and Lufthansa was not interested in a minority stake. Etihad worked very hard to get the unions and the creditors to accept its terms for its USD 750 millions direct investment for a 49% equity stake in Alitalia. The problems of Lufthansa and AF/KL are compounded by the mega orders from the Gulf carriers for Airbus aircraft with the associated economic fallout of order cancellations.

Etihad will modify its agreements with its equity partners to comply with the EU and Swiss regulators control requirements. Etihad did the same in India when the regulators questioned its control of the Jet Airways board. Etihad will not jeopardize its strategy for expansion; one that is based on equity partnerships providing access to new markets, cost savings in aircraft acquisition, maintenance and other services and more traffic through its Abu Dhabi hub.

The airline industry is more global than ever; the EU has to balance its requirements and need of EU nationals control of its airlines and the foreign investment in these airlines. These investments preserve jobs and services in Europe at a time when its economies are under pressure and their own carriers are not willing to invest.

The Surplus Parts Market A Force Of Stability

In a recent article in AINonline "Surplus Parts Costs Forecast To Drop" it was suggested that prices will go down as more and more aircraft are parted out pushing "the current prices downwards making the already tense market even more competitive".

In principle, this is true to a certain extent.

Boeing and Airbus have both announced production rate increases on their current aircraft types.   Taking into consideration that as an aircraft type evolves and technology improvements are introduced; parts interchangeability is no longer maintained between the latest aircraft off the production line and an aircraft produced 2 or 4 years earlier. This is valid especially for avionics components, where software changes are the most common.

OEMs have to meet both the challenge of  supporting the production rate increases and that of supplying parts to support the industry with the latest and earlier component configurations; this will impose production pressures and supply difficulties.

As the number of retired aircraft increases to almost a 1000 aircraft per year in the next decade, so will the number of part-outs and the availability of surplus parts. However, these surplus components and parts will not support the latest and recent configurations of the active fleet, but will support the earlier and older configuration versions.

The availability of surplus parts for mature aircraft configurations of the popular fleets will tend to;

• ease off the pressure for OEMs to support the earlier aircraft configurations; and
• reduce prices in the aftermarket as a whole but remain competitive for avionics components and a variety of other parts.

The surplus market is detrimental in maintaining a stable components and parts supply for the mature aircraft.

DWC On The GO

Al Maktoum International Airport at Dubai World Center (DWC) is set for major expansion to eventually accommodate up to 240 million passengers. DWC currently handles a few low cost airlines but is the home of Emirates SkyCargo in addition to a few more cargo airlines, creating one of the largest cargo hubs in the region.

An investment of 32 Billion USDs has been set for this task, almost double the projected 18 Billion USDs projected earlier at the start of the decade.. The investment is to support the building of another 4 runways and 2 satellite buildings that will accommodate 120 million passengers annually and 100 A380s parked at any one time (click here for a look at the Master Plan). This phase will be completed in 6 to 8 years in time for Emirates to move out from Dubai International in the mid 2020s leaving Dubai International for the use of Flydubai and other operators. The airport design will allow Dubai Airports to add capacity in 20 million passengers increments to support the expansion plans of Emirates.

Dubai International is expected to handle 120 million passengers by 2020 in time for the 2020 Expo Trade Exhibition. The smooth expansion of Emirates depends on capacity at Dubai International. It is projected that Emirates will carry 93 million passengers by 2020.

Dubai sees the aviation sector as a major contributor to its economy and it is expected to generate 323,000 jobs and contribute 28% of GDP in 2020 compared to 250,000 jobs and 22% of GDP in 2011.

The Pilot Shortage Myth, Maybe Not

Captain Lee Moak, President of ALPA, International in an Opinion titled The Pilot Shortage Myth  in the September 8, 2014 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology argued that it is not a pilot shortage but a pay shortage. I agree with Captain Moak, that entry level pay for pilots at the lowest paying US airlines especially regionals is at the poverty level and this is driving young people from the profession among other factors. Airline management sometimes use the pilot shortage as an argument to roll back safety regulations (Pilot Fatigue and FO qualification and training rules) or cancel flights and curtail services.

I do not share the view that the shortage is a myth. It may be a myth today but it will be a reality in 15 to 20 years. US carriers are rolling over their older fleets and the capacity increases are derived more from larger aircraft than from fleet expansion, but that is now eventually the fleet will have to increase and so will pilot demand. The rapid expansion of airline fleets in Asia Pacific, MENA and Latin America, add to it the eventual recovery of European airlines and the industry will be looking at a global shortage.

As the fleet ages, so do pilots, in reality pilots aged 45 to 50 years now would be retired by then. Investment in human capital especially pilots, engineers and technicians is no longer a luxury it is a necessity for the survival of the industry. This has been a challenge a few years back (The New Challenges... Manpower and Training Oussama's Take 20 June 2011), still is and will be for a long time.  

Royal Jordanian, Uncertain Future

Royal Jordanian (RJA) is facing liquidation since its losses have exceeded 75% of its capital. For this reason, the airline has not issued its 2013 financial results or had its share holders general meeting yet. In reality, the government who is the major share holder will not allow its liquidation. It is a matter of national pride and to a certain extent national security. There are talks of restructuring and a government bail out, but this is a hot topic because of the economy and the deficit. It appears like a lot of political jockeying is going on.

The airline was listed in the Amman Stock Exchange in December 2007 and since then it had very mixed results. It sustained losses in 2008 (34.7 M USD), 2011 (81.6 M USD) and 2013 but had moderate profits in 2009 (40.3 M USD), 2010 (13.6 M USD) and 2012 (1.6 M USD).  

In all fairness to Royal Jordanian the geopolitical situation in MENA has not been very favorable and still is not; between fluctuating fuel prices, the Arab Spring, Libya and now ISIL, the airline had to indefinitely suspend lucrative routes like Damascus, Aleppo, Tripoli, Benghazi, Misrata and now Mosul; Cairo, Baghdad and Erbil were suspended on and off for security considerations. RJA also suspended flights over Syria which added almost an hour to an hour forty five minutes to the Beirut flight without an appreciable increase to fares. However, RJA has just announced a code share agreement with Middle East Airlines to start in mid October 2014, allowing RJA to cancel two of its four daily flights. But the most interesting reason cited is the aggressive competition from the Gulf three (Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways).

In an attempt to reduce its costs RJA inked code share agreements with Gulf Air, Oman Air and SriLankan to operate Amman to Bahrain, Muscat and Colombo  and has suspended or plan to suspend flights to what it terms as losing routes, like Delhi, Mumbai, Alexandria, Accra, Lagos, Brussels and Milan.

Not withstanding geopolitics, the airline did not react quickly enough. While canceling unprofitable routes is a good thing, overcapacity is not. It leaves part of the fleet idling while still incurring lease and loan payments. Rationalizing staff levels is not be the greatest option in a politically charged country with a very high unemployment rate. 

RJA has already returned 2 A321s and with the B787 deliveries it is planning to rationalize the fleet composition by the end of 2014 to include the following:

B787, 5 operating aircraft;

A340, completely phased out (4 aircraft) ;

A330, 2 operating aircraft down from 3;

A321, 2 operating aircraft down from 4;

A320, 6 operating aircraft down from 7;

A319, 4 operating aircraft, no change;

E195, 4 operating aircraft down from 5;

E175, 3 operating aircraft, and

A310F, 2 operating aircraft, no change.

A net change of 5 passenger aircraft all of them single aisle aircraft, but with a more fuel efficient and modern fleet.

In a nutshell, the airline board and management acted, just like in the old days, like a government entity. This has caused the share price to go down from a high of 4.09 JOD {5.76 US$} on 16 March 2008 to 0.38 JOD {0.53 US$} on 15 September 2014. RJA would have certainly benefited of the equivalent of a Chapter 11.

RJA needs to act in a more agile and proactive manner, after all that was the reason the airline was privatized. The plans for the fleet and route reductions were too late and too little. There is a need to come up with innovative solutions that increase revenue and not only reduce cost. After all, cost reduction is subject to the law of diminishing returns but with revenues, the sky is the limit. 

While RJA may have not lacked leadership, it requires a different kind of leadership. One that not only looks at fleet and routes but one that looks at the management structure and how management approaches risk assessment and especially mitigation. A management that looks at new opportunities for expansion amid the chaos. If this means replacing senior managers, then so be it.

Royal Jordanian has survived for 50 years among the geopolitical chaos; the dilemma today is how to survive and thrive in the same chaos as a publicly listed company. This is a totally different set of rules that RJ may not be yet equipped to handle.

Beyond Emirates' A350 Order Cancellation

This blog first appeared in Bangalore Aviation under the title of Analysis: Emirates Banks on 777X with A350 XWB Order Cancellation jointly authored by Devesh Agarwal and Oussama Salah

On June 11, 2014 Emirates and Airbus announced the cancellation of the A350 order 50 A350-900 and 20 A350-1000 as a result of a fleet requirements review. The order cancellation was downplayed by Airbus as "not good news commercially" but not "bad news financially". It must have been a disappointment to lose 9% of the A350XWB order book by one of the most prominent Airbus customers. Emirates deliveries would have started in 2019 giving Airbus ample time to recover. However, it sends the message that B777X can easily perform the missions of the A350XWB.

I am certain the fleet requirements review went beyond the A350 cancellation, Emirates has emphasized that the passenger growth forecast has not been changed which makes one wonder what the fleet composition will eventually be?

The cancellation has many advantages for Emirates:

• Rationalizing the fleet back to two (2) types; A380s and B777s currently the fleet consists of  (A380/A340/A330 and B777);
• Removing the financial and human resources burden of entry into service of a new fleet (maintenance facilities, simulators, parts, training and hiring etc..);
• An improved cash flow due to reduced pre delivery payments; and
• Less financing requirements in the tune of Sixteen (16) Billion USD.

The only disadvantage at this time, there is no aircraft to cover the 230 to 300 passengers requirement which is now covered by the A330/A340 and some of the B777-200, in other words their thinner routes. One can argue that with the newer standards of first and business seats, cubicles and apartments the passenger loads of the aircraft will automatically be reduced. 

Emirates wants an A380neo which Airbus is starting to look at, however the A330neo is still their priority. Emirates is an influential customer and very persistent, remember the B777X so eventually Airbus will develop the A380neo. In the meantime Emirates and Boeing are discussing the B747-8i which has slightly lower passenger load than the current A380 configuration but the same range capability and as the latest reports intimate a slightly better fuel consumption on a seat/mile basis. Whether Emirates will accept the B747-8i fuel efficiency argument and actually buy the B747-8i or it is only meant to pressure Airbus towards the A380neo, remains to be seen.

In any case, the Farnborough Air Show is just round the corner.

ADAT, Moving Forward or ...

In early May 2014, Etihad Airways acquired or took over Abu Dhabi Aircraft Technologies (ADAT), formerly Gulf Aircraft Maintenance Company (GAMCO), from Mubadala except for the Engine Shop.

GAMCO was founded in 1987 as a partnership between the Government of Abu Dhabi and Gulf Air who owned a 40% stake, primarily to undertake the existing wide body and new technology aircraft (L1011, B767, A320, A330 and A340) fleets of Gulf Air. As Gulf Air's financial situation deteriorated in 1997, GAMCO expanded its third party business and aircraft maintenance capabilities beyond the Gulf Air requirements. As a result GAMCO expanded to become one of the top 15 MROs globally and number 1 in MENA (between Europe and Singapore) with more than seventy (70) customers ranging from North America through Europe and MENA all the way to the Far East. In early 2006, Gulf Air pulled its maintenance from GAMCO following the 2005 withdrawal of the Abu Dhabi Government from Gulf Air. The relationship between Gulf Air and GAMCO was at best very uneasy.

As a result the Abu Dhabi Government acquired Gulf Air's 40% share in GAMCO and turned it over to Mubadala, a government investment arm in the aerospace and technology sector. In 2007 Mubadala rebranded GAMCO as ADAT.

When Etihad was formed in 2003, GAMCO was entrusted with the total maintenance and support of Etihad's expanding fleet. Fast forward to the present; a decade later Etihad has withdrawn and brought inhouse a substantial amount of services leaving ADAT to perform airframe heavy maintenance and components/engines repair and overhaul activities.

Beyond the press releases and the great sentiments of moving forward there is an underlying desire for Etihad to take total control of its total maintenance activities for several reasons (punctuality, quality etc..) and to improve the synergies with its airline equity partners. The next step will be to bring in maintenance from Airberlin, Jet Airways, Air Serbia, Air Seychelles and who knows Alitalia in the future in order to reduce cost and safeguard its investment. As Etihad tightens the reins and demands more and more attention to its fleet and its partners fleets, other customers will shy away. The region has never been known for balanced relationship.

Whether this is really moving forward or a case of Deja Vu, only time will tell

EX-IM Bank Again...

EX-IM Bank is again in the news; Delta, A4A and ALPA are adamant about defunding it because it stifles competition by providing export facilities to competing airlines especially the Gulf carriers. The fact that Korean, a SkyTeam partner of Delta or GOL obtained an EX-IM guaranteed bond financing to support its engine work at Delta TechOps is of no consequence. Delta's assertion is; EX-IM Bank allows carriers like Emirate, Qatar and Etihad cheaper financing therefore allowing them to offer cheaper fares which creates unfair competition. Hence the defunding campaign, regardless of the requirements of any other economic sector such as Aerospace,Nuclear energy, etc. It would have been better for Delta to lobby for tighter rules on guarantees for aircraft purchases.

EX-IM Bank and Boeing have maintained that defunding is akin to unilateral disarmament. Airlines will just buy from Airbus and utilize whatever the European credit agencies have to offer. Defunding will not change the level of competition, just the type of aircraft used.

Delta has been risk averse when it comes to buying new technology aircraft. Delta's CEO is on record for the "preference of proven technology". They feel that buying at the end of the development and production cycle allows them to purchase aircraft at lower prices. Others, including the Gulf carriers prefer to be launch customers with all the technology risks and possible delays this entails. Being a launch customer allows an airline a greater say in the aircraft design, aircraft mission requirements and most importantly a much lower price ever.

Delta's acquisition and/or lease of older aircraft like the MD80s and B717 provides them with lower asset costs, their use on short and low utilization sectors offsets the fuel price and when maintenance is due the aircraft is parted out or retired. The preference to refurbish older aircraft with the latest interior and cabin IFE and Wi-Fi in Delta's thinking provides an equal level of comfort to newer technology aircraft and most importantly better profitability. This maybe true in the short term but cabin noise levels, ability of the aircraft systems to support modern IFE and  new ATM requirements and overall reliability will eventually catch up.

To put the unfair competition of Gulf carriers in perspective, out of the 180 million international passengers that travel to and from the USA approximately 6 million (3.33%) hail from the Middle East of which 2.4 million (41%) are carried by US carriers and 3.6 million (59%) are carried by International carriers. There are seven carriers that operate non stop services to the USA; Etihad, Emirates, Qatar Airways, Saudia, Egypt Air, Royal Jordanian and Royal Air Maroc. Out of these, four are members of an alliance, but all of them code share with a US carrier for travel within the USA.
- American code shares with Etihad, Qatar Airways and Royal Jordanian (the latter two are members of
  OneWorld);
- Saudia code shares with Delta (a SkyTeam alliance member);
- Egypt Air code shares with United (a Star alliance memeber); and
- Emirates, Etihad and Royal Air Maroc code share with Jet Blue.
They bring revenue to the cities they serve in terms of employment, tourist traffic, use of the airport facilities (dedicated lounges) and most importantly better connections to the rest of the world.

All these MENA carriers come from relatively small countries with little or no domestic travel and have always relied on transit traffic that caters to holiday traffic, visiting friends and relatives and yes to the immigrant communities in the USA. For some reason US carriers do not pay much attention to the rising numbers of immigrants from MENA, India, Pakistan and Asia. these groups constitute the bulk of the traffic carried by these carriers, especially the Gulf Carriers. They compete on service, advanced entertainment systems and passenger amenities, high technology aircraft with high fuel efficiency and ultra long flights (12 to 16 hours/sector) that lower the asset cost per flight hour and most importantly very few or no ancillary fees.

US carriers have gained profitability in the last few years by:
- exercising capacity control (a 2% growth at best) while the Middle East was expanding at double digit
   rates (10% to 15%);
- lowering their labor costs, sometimes at the expense of customer service on ground and in flight;
- utilizing older aircraft (it was not until the last three to five years that US carriers embarked on fleet
  renewals, Delta not as much, and cabin upgrades); and of course
- escalating ancillary fees.

Hardly the stuff of fierce competition.

The Gulf carriers will expand into the USA by virtue of the open skies regimes they have with the USA and their global presence. They will compete with Delta and others; whether they use Airbus or Boeing aircraft is not an issue for them.

Malaysian MH370

Malaysian MH370 disappeard on March 7, 2014 and the search continues and no one is the wiser. This will not be the first aircraft crash whose wreckage may not be found. In the meantime the relatives of the passengers suffer the uncertainty and lack of closure. Our prayers and thoughts are with them.

The Media and CNN in particular has made this into a 24 hours a day drama, with experts upon experts speculating on what may have been; not that other networks were any less guilty.

The aircraft made a turn and headed back and then it was lost from the radar and satellites. The whole incident/accident questions what a lot of us in aviation took for granted:

• if an aircraft does not report to the next ATM center or disappears from the radar someone will raise an alarm; or
• if an unidentified aircraft shows up on a radar screen, someone would try to raise the flight or scramble an aircraft to have a look see. But for someone to assume and do nothing on the premise that if an airliner turns back it must have an ATC clearance is ridiculous.

However, some of the theories brought forward to explain the disappearance of MH370 are literally out of this world. The sad part was, they were seriously discussed on TV and social media, and these include:

• a black hole type disturbance in the atmosphere sucked the aircraft into space or another dimension;
• the flight was hijacked by US and Israeli agents because it carried some ultra secret technology on its way to the Taliban or North Korea; 
• there was mention of a cyber attack on the aircraft systems;
• the plane was destroyed by a Texas company because it had four Chinese engineers holding semi conductor patents worth billions of dollars. The patents will revert to the company in case of their death; and/or
• the pilot has gone suicidal because he had a failed love affair or was an Islamic zealot.

One good thing came out of this accident; countries were ready to cooperate to locate the aircraft, contributing resources from maritime surveillance aircraft, ships, satellites and underwater equipment capable of locating the pulses of the CVR and DFDR locators in a search effort that moved from one area to the other as investigators refined the flight path of the missing aircraft.   

When AF447 was lost in June 1, 2009 over the South Atlantic, it took two years to recover the DFDR and CVR and sadly we are facing the same problem. The calls to extend the battery lives of the DFDR/CVR came to nothing. There were even suggestions of floatable black boxes.

However, the solution must be a better aircraft tracking regime utilizing the available technology in               e-Enabling and connectivity in addition to the extended locators batteries operational life. A solution to switching off the ATC Transponders and ACARS in flight must be found.

As of today April 5, the Chinese news agency reported that one of its ships have detected a pulse at 37.5KHz which is the DFDR/CVR locator frequency and their pilots have photographed a debris field. 

We remain hopeful that this may be the successful end of the search.